Oscars 2010.

Film And here we are again. After my meander through the Bafta nominations I couldn't ignore the Oscars, even if every year they elate and infuriate me in equal measure with Best Picture nominations that clearly aren't and a single minded approach to the world of cinema. At least there's the Caesars for the rest of us. Remember, this isn't what I'd like to win, this is what I think will win. As I've discovered in previous years, this can be and usually is two very different things.

Best picture
Avatar (James Cameron and Jon Landau, producers)
District 9 (Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham, producers)
An Education (Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, producers)
The Hurt Locker (nominees to be determined)
Inglourious Basterds (Lawrence Bender, producer)
Precious (Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness and Gary Magness, producers)
A Serious Man (Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, producers)
Up in the Air (Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman and Jason Reitman, producers)
The Blind Side (nominees to be determined)
Up (Jonas Rivera, producer)

I agree with Mark Kermode (who returned to BBC News this afternoon to give his verdict) Avatar will win this because the industry has a lot riding on 3D. It's a film I'm now almost seen twice, either because it had sold out while I was in the queue or because it's three hours long and I wasn't in the mood. At this rate I'll be able to test if it still works on dvd first time around. Just in case you haven't seen it, the 70-minute Phantom Menace review guy has recently tackled Avatar -- it's only spoilery if you haven't seen the trailer.

Actress in a supporting role
Mo'Nique in Precious
Vera Farmiga in Up in the Air
Penélope Cruz in Nine
Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart

The first category in which I've seen none of the films. At all. I'll offer it to Maggie Gyllenhaal because I re-watched Adaptation the other day and manage to bring great depth to the tiniest of roles.

Actor in a supporting role
Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds
Christopher Plummer in The Last Station
Matt Damon in Invictus
Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones
Woody Harrelson in The Messenger

The second category in which I've seen none of the films. It's got to be Stanley Tucci's year hasn't it? Though it'd be fun to give Matt Damon the award simply so that he can be Oscar Winning Matt Damon and it be for the thing he's known for.

Actress in a leading role
Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia
Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side
Helen Mirren in The Last Station
Gabourey Sidibe in Precious
Carey Mulligan in An Education

I cheered. I cheered again. Carey! Carey! During the BBC coverage, Jane Hill dropped the clanger that Mulligan hasn't been in films before, which will be a surprise to the directors of Pride & Prejudice, And When Did You Last See Your Father? and The Greatest.

Actor in a leading role
Morgan Freeman in Invictus
Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart
George Clooney in Up in the Air
Colin Firth in A Single Man
Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker

This year's Fight Club, that is the extraordinary film roundly ignored by the academy is Moon, the most specific example being Sam Rockwell in this category. The reason would be a spoiler, but what does a man have to do? Morgan Freeman because he's playing Mandella. The academy likes to give awards to people they've heard of playing people they've heard of.

Animated feature film
Up (Pete Docter and Bob Peterson)
The Princess and the Frog (Ron Clements and John Musker)
Coraline (Henry Selick)
Fantastic Mr Fox (Wes Anderson)
The Secret of Kells (Tomm Moore)

Disney vs Disney really, though The Princess and the Frog will probably sneak it because it's the first 2D animation to appear from the mouse house in quite some time and the older members of the Academy nostalgically may tick its box.

Foreign language film
Ajami (Scandar Copti and Yaron Shani, Israel)
A Prophet (Jacques Audiard, France)
The Secret of Her Eyes (Juan Jose Campanella, Argentina)
The White Ribbon (Michael Haneke, Germany)
The Milk of Sorrow (Claudia Llosa, Peru)

The usual strange and distorted selection. It'll probably go to The Milk of Sorrow because the Academy are a bunch of contrarians.

Directing
Avatar (James Cameron)
The Hurt Locker (Kathryn Bigelow)
Inglourious Basterds (Quentin Tarantino)
Up in the Air (Jason Reitman)
Precious, Lee Daniels

Again, I think Duncan Jones is very overlooked here. James Cameron will probably win because this looks doesn't look like a year where that decision is going to be split. But it would be sweet if Bigelow were to win it.

Writing (adapted screenplay)
District 9 (Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell)
An Education (Nick Hornby)
Precious (Geoffrey Fletcher)
Up in the Air (Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner)
In the Loop (Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci and Tony Roche)

Some might say this is what the best picture nomination list should have looked like. In the Loop or An Education would be fabulous choices, though I suspect this will be the Precious recognition award because it won't win in any of the mains.

Writing (original screenplay)
The Hurt Locker (Mark Boal)
Inglourious Basterds (Quentin Tarantino)
A Serious Man (Joel and Ethan Coen)
Up (Pete Docter and Bob Petersen)
The Messenger (Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman)

Tarantino because he's Tarantino.

Art direction
Avatar (art direction: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg; set decoration: Kim Sinclair)
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (art direction: Dave Warren and Anastasia Masaro; set decoration: Caroline Smith)
Nine (art direction: John Myhre; set decoration: Gordon Sim)
Sherlock Holmes (art direction: Sarah Greenwood; set decoration: Katie Spencer)
The Young Victoria (art direction: Patrice Vermette; set decoration: Maggie Gray)

Avatar.

Cinematography
Avatar (Mauro Fiore)
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (Bruno Delbonnel)
The Hurt Locker (Barry Ackroyd)
Inglourious Basterds (Robert Richardson)
The White Ribbon (Christian Berger)

Avatar. It's the 3D is great and will rule the world award. Yawn.

Costume design
Bright Star (Janet Patterson)
Coco Before Chanel (Catherine Leterrier)
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (Monique Prudhomme)
Nine (Colleen Atwood)
The Young Victoria (Sandy Powell)

Bafta nominated A Single Man and An Education instead of Parnassus and Nine and I'm repeating my selection here.

Documentary (feature)
Burma VJ (Anders Østergaard and Lise Lense-Møller)
The Cove (nominees to be determined)
Food, Inc (Robert Kenner and Elise Pearlstein)
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers (Judith Ehrlich and Rick Goldsmith)
Which Way Home (Rebecca Cammisa)

It's the political award. No Michael Moore again this year, except ...

Documentary (short subject)
China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province (Jon Alpert and Matthew O'Neill)
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner (Daniel Junge and Henry Ansbacher)
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant (Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert)
Music by Prudence (Roger Ross Williams and Elinor Burkett)
Rabbit à la Berlin (Bartek Konopka and Anna Wydra)

... that would be ironic.

Film editing
Avatar (Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua and James Cameron)
District 9 (Julian Clarke)
The Hurt Locker (Bob Murawski and Chris Innis)
Inglourious Basterds (Sally Menke)
Precious (Joe Klotz)

Avatar. See above.

Makeup
Il Divo (Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano)
The Young Victoria (Jon Henry Gordon and Jenny Shircore)
Star Trek (Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow)

Star Trek! Ha! Though it's nice to see Il Divo nominated for something even if it's in the catagory least likely. Again I had Moon pegged for something here.

Music (original score)
Avatar (James Horner)
Fantastic Mr Fox (Alexandre Desplat)
Up (Michael Giacchino)
The Hurt Locker (Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders)
Sherlock Holmes (Hans Zimmer)

Avatar. I'm saying all of this but The Hurt Locker could sneak some. It just feels like an epic sweep kind of year.

Music (original song)
Almost There, from The Princess and the Frog by Randy Newman
Down in New Orleans, from The Princess and the Frog by Randy Newman
Loin de Paname, from Paris 36
Take it All, from Nine by Maury Yeston
The Weary Kind, from Crazy Heart by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett

Simon CowellLeona Lewis will be gutted. But Randy Newman's clearly ahead here - but this could be one of those split decision situations so Maury Yeston might sneak in.

Short film (animated)
French Roast
Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty
Logoramam
The Lady and the Reaper
A Matter of Loaf and Death

Because it would be perverse not to. 16 million watched this on television the other year. 16 million!

Short film (live action)
The Door
Instead of Abracadabra
Kavi
Miracle Fish
The New Tenants

I like the title.

Sound editing
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Up

Avatar.

Sound mixing
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Avatar. Please god not Transformers. Nice to see Star Trek at least doing well in the technical categories.

Visual effects
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

Star Trek. No I'm kidding. Again, Moon is robbed here and I think it's about time the academy saw fit to split this category in two and recognise CG and physical effects as two separate entities.