Film With that business over with, here are my guesses. Which most of them are because as usual I haven't seen most of the films. The full list of nominations is here.
Best Picture:
Should win: ''Gravity"
Will win: ''12 Years a Slave"
[Gravity is the most important film of this decade so far in terms of innovation and re-engineering how films are made and what they're capable of. The academy rarely rewards those.]
Actor:
Should win: Chiwetel Ejiofor, "12 Years a Slave"
Will win: Chiwetel Ejiofor, "12 Years a Slave"
Actress:
Should win: Sandra Bullock, "Gravity"
Will win: Cate Blanchett, "Blue Jasmine"
[Having seen just what Bullock (and Clooney for that matter) had to deal with in terms of harnesses and only being able to work within such a narrow band AND produce that performance, she deserves the award. But since everyone has been saying Blanchett will win the Oscar for at least a year, Blanchett will win the Oscar. My guess on the Hanks outrage is that like Soderbergh's directing nomination in the year of Traffic and Erin Brockovich, the vote was split between Captain Philips and Saving Mr Banks.]
Supporting Actor:
Should win: Barkhad Abdi, "Captain Phillips"
Will win: Bradley Cooper, "American Hustle"
Supporting Actress:
Should win: Lupita Nyong'o, "12 Years a Slave"
Will win: Jennifer Lawrence, "American Hustle"
[Though frankly I've no idea. The academy's cruel enough to give it to Lawrence just see if she trips on the stairs again.]
Directing:
Should win: Alfonso Cuaron, "Gravity"
Will win: Steve McQueen, "12 Years a Slave"
[See above. But it's not really fair because I haven't see 12 Years a Slave. Does it have the potential to change how films are made? But then again, I thought, There Will Be Blood would be a gamechanger to. No one cared.]
Foreign Language Film:
Should win: "The Hunt," Denmark
Will win: "The Great Beauty," Italy
8. Adapted Screenplay:
Should win: Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, "Before Midnight"
Will win: Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, "Philomena"
[Or any of the others. This feels like a consolation category.]
Original Screenplay:
Should win: Spike Jonze, "Her"
Will win: Woody Allen, "Blue Jasmine"
[Or any of the others. This feels like a consolation category. Though it's worth noting that this shows that Jonze is capable of producing interesting work without Charlie Kaufmann, that auteur theory continues to be on shaky ground.]
Animated Feature Film:
Should win: "Ernest & Celestine"
Will win: "Frozen"
Production Design:
Should win: "Gravity"
Will win: "American Hustle"
Cinematography:
Should win: ''Gravity"
Will win: ''Gravity"
Sound Mixing:
Should win: ''Gravity"
Will win: ''Gravity"
Sound Editing:
Should win: ''Gravity"
Will win: ''Gravity"
Original Score:
Should win: "Gravity," Steven Price
Will win: "Saving Mr. Banks," Thomas Newman.
Original Song:
Should win: "Let It Go" from "Frozen," Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez;
Will win: "Ordinary Love" from "Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom," Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen.
Costume:
Should win: "American Hustle"
Will win: ''12 Years a Slave"
Documentary Feature:
Should win: "The Act of Killing"
Will win: "The Act of Killing"
Film Editing:
Should win: ''Gravity"
Will win: ''Gravity"
Makeup and Hairstyling:
Should win: "The Lone Ranger"
Will win: "Dallas Buyers Club"
Visual Effects:
Should win: ''Gravity"
Will win: ''Gravity"
[I'm going to stick my neck out and say Gravity will sweep the technical nominations. Or at least it should.]
All of which said, for all my admiration for Gravity and despite what I've said above, I think it'll either sweep or the academy will use all of these categories to reward the films they can't higher up the list.
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